First, a bit of background: what are the causes that can influence the euro/dollar exchange rate?
There are many factors. The exchange rate is the result of a multi-factorial process involving the economic health of countries, sectors of activity, political choices, Central Bank decisions, and so on. The current economic turmoil is having a direct or indirect effect on exchange rates. Against this backdrop of uncertainty, it can seem complicated for international SMEs to draw up forward-looking scenarios for the year ahead.
We have analysed certain future trends for 2024 that could have an impact on the foreign exchange market (see iBanFirst's macroeconomic guide), such as US growth boosted by the good micro-economic health of companies across the Atlantic, but also a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy, the return of stagflation in Europe, falling property prices, a new energy crisis, etc.
Two years ago, we were told that the 2020s would see a return to growth, stimulated by the accelerated digitalisation of the Covid period and a continuing low cost of capital. This has not been the case. Growth is slowing dangerously, with one major exception: the United States. The cost of capital remains persistently high, which will put the brakes on investment and company margins...[...]
Read the full interview on Le Hub website (in French)