Vaincre la surprise stratégique pour l'économie de la Défense via le système stratégique de signaux précoces

While large companies have a business intelligence department, it is increasingly difficult for them to detect and interpret weak signals due to an ever-increasing volume of heterogeneous data, and to its complex strategic environment. Thus, the so-called ’classical’ scanning, often organized as silo, based on the model ’Intelligence, Modelling, Choice’ of Simon (1983) appears to be obsolete. To face these challenges, a strategic early warning system as a method of Competitive and Strategic Intelligence is proposed and applied for the first time to the defence sector. The model built in collaboration with industry experts and the calculation of scenarios as potential future images of this market for Europe were made via the dedicated software, Stratbrain. We were able to calculate the impacts and probabilities of the major themes of the sector and to determine the vectors of resistance or development of the domain. Then to calculate, visualize the most impacting scenario in 3 years (2021) whose probability is quite strong and announces a soft growth in this region. This strategic early warning system could guide the use of artificial intelligence to constitute an augmented Competitive and Strategic Intelligence system.