Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d'accélération pour l'économie française

We describe a new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicator developed by the Banque de France in order to detect, on a monthly basis, the turning points in the French economy’s acceleration cycle. The indicator is based on the methodology of Markov-switching models and uses the Bank’s monthly business survey as input. A pseudo-real-time validation since 1998 shows the indicator’s usefulness in short-term economic analysis. This type of indicator provides original qualitative information that complements standard quantitative tools for estimating GDP growth.