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Middle East: regional crisis, global disorder
Each month, Frédéric Munier, Director of the School of Geopolitics for Business at SKEMA Business School, publishes a column in the magazine Pour l’Éco. The geopolitical sequence of events engulfing Israel and the Gaza Strip since 7 October is upsetting the various states of balance that had previously prevailed in the Middle East. What will this lead to in regional and global terms?
In his book Le Prophète et la pandémie (The Prophet and the Pandemic), published in 2021, Gilles Kepel described the recent recomposition processes at work in the Middle East. In particular, he contrasted what he called the “brotherhood-Shiite axis” (i.e. an alliance between the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood and Shiite Muslims) involving Turkey, Qatar and Iran with the “Abrahamic entente” between the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco and Israel.
The Axis and the Entente
The glue holding the “axis” together is opposition to Israel and the promotion of political, even terrorist, Islamism, as demonstrated by its support for both Hamas and Hezbollah. Meanwhile, the “entente” links Muslim countries that have opted for realpolitik, in whose name they recognised Israel under the Abraham Accords signed in 2020. The use of expressions dating back to the start of World War I is significant. This surprising re-shaping of alliances stems from several factors, including the United States’ partial withdrawal from the Middle East and the rise of regional giants.
